Aug
18
As Rich wrote on Wednesday, this is historically a weak period for equity markets through the end of October, and right on cue the markets are correcting. Of course, this is happening right after excessive optimism once again gripped the market. Sentiment was abysmal in October of 2022 and close...
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Aug
16
One question I am getting a lot now goes like this: “With the market having had such a strong YTD so far, is it over? Time to sell, time to take risk off the table? When the market has a big first half is the party usually over?” Legit question...
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Aug
14
The US economy continues to hang in there just fine but inflationary data on many fronts continues to fall and the bond market is pricing in just a 10% probability of a Fed rate hike come September. So, with the Fed near done with rate hikes and Fed chair Powell...
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Aug
10
Fresh data released this morning points to continued progress on the inflation front. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), both the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its core version (which excludes the often-volatile food and energy components) increased by just 0.2% in July, a level that is...
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Aug
04
As if on cue to allow everyone to enjoy the last few weeks of summer, today’s labor report was mostly a snoozefest that came in very close to the official estimate with a gain of 187k jobs vs. 200k expected. While that’s technically considered a slight miss, it’s still a...
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Aug
02
One of the Fed’s two jobs is to manage inflation around a long-term target (roughly 2.5%). They try to impose price stability into the economy and attempt to manage such by using their lever on short-dated interest rates. Like Novocain, it takes a while to work but eventually it works. ...
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Jul
31
We talk about “cycle investing” all the time – that’s the time-tested belief that over time markets are driven by monetary policy and the cost and availability of credit. It’s tough to have a growing economy and improving earnings when lending gets tight and the demand for credit falls. History...
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Jul
27
Second quarter earnings season is in full swing, with this being the busiest week that has the largest number of S&P 500 companies due to report results. As usual, investors are laser focused on the latest updates of how corporate America is performing, particularly for mega-cap Tech stocks to try...
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Jul
19
The U.S. Dollar has fallen sharply since the CPI report continuing a downtrend that started at the end of last year. The Dollar has broken below the post COVID uptrend and has moved below key support at $101 (and the nice round number $100). Source: Stockcharts.com, as of 7/18/23 ...
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Jul
18
Last week brought us fresh evidence that inflation continues to cool rapidly. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) only increased by 0.18% in June, after increasing by just 0.12% in May. This means that over the last two months, CPI increased at...
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