Oct
03
Impossible to ignore the material move higher in 10y UST yields. 4.73% on the 10y UST is its highest level since late 2007. Three take-ways from me on this: The Fed doesn’t have to hike rates – the market is doing it for them for free. Higher yields and a...
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Sep
13
Lots of attention this morning to CPI inflation headlines. Energy running hot on low inventory levels, used cars continue to drift lower in price, shelter costs a mixed bag. IGNORE ALL OF IT. The thing to focus on is the favorite inflation measure often quoted by Fed chair Powell: core PCE...
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Sep
12
It’s this week’s inflation data that is probably the headline to focus on, if one is into focusing on headlines. The bond market is currently saying the chances of a September Fed hike are +/-10% but weak inflation data later this week will give a read into the potential of...
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Sep
07
Back-to-school day in Boston, opening night for the NFL, and three charts for your Thursday morning!!! LET’S GO!!! Chart#1 - Temporary job growth rolling over: A deeper dive into last Friday’s non-farm-payroll data noted that temporary jobs appear to have peaked and are now rolling over. History says first temporary...
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Aug
29
Fed chair Powell performed roughly “as expected” at Jackson Hole on Friday. Lots of progress to date against inflation. Inflation is going down, but it remains elevated. The path forward is going to be data dependent and the Fed will hike if they need to hike. Everything in life is...
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Aug
24
Fed chair Powell speaks Friday at 10am from Jackson Hole. It’s an important speech with very important implications for markets. I expect Powell to be his normal hawkish self with regards to rates and the battle versus inflation – but not too hawkish. Rates have crept higher recently (especially the...
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Aug
23
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index is in the midst of a nearly 5% pullback from its recent peak on 7/31. Corrections of this sort have been a remarkably frequent occurrence in the history of the stock market. Since January 1928, the S&P 500 index has suffered...
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Aug
18
As Rich wrote on Wednesday, this is historically a weak period for equity markets through the end of October, and right on cue the markets are correcting. Of course, this is happening right after excessive optimism once again gripped the market. Sentiment was abysmal in October of 2022 and close...
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Aug
16
One question I am getting a lot now goes like this: “With the market having had such a strong YTD so far, is it over? Time to sell, time to take risk off the table? When the market has a big first half is the party usually over?” Legit question...
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Aug
14
The US economy continues to hang in there just fine but inflationary data on many fronts continues to fall and the bond market is pricing in just a 10% probability of a Fed rate hike come September. So, with the Fed near done with rate hikes and Fed chair Powell...
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