Blog Center

Jul 17

It’s Fire Season for Small Caps

As of yesterday’s market close, the Russell 2000 Index, a broad and widely followed gauge of small capitalization stocks, has gained more than 1% daily for the past five consecutive days. Let us put such impressive streak into historical perspective: Streaks of 4 consecutive days of greater than 1% daily returns have... read more →
Jul 12

Stage Being Set for a September Cut

Yesterday brought the latest read on inflation with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the news was very encouraging across the board.  Headline CPI fell month over month for the first time since May 2020, while core CPI rose just 0.1%, the smallest increase since January 2021.  Over the past... read more →
Jul 10

Strength Leads To More Strength

Second half returns tend to be stronger when the first half of the year is strong. Maybe not the most intuitive study of market behavior as I assume most investors would guess the opposite. But the data is pretty clear in the chart below that market returns of greater than... read more →
Jul 02
Jun 24

31 & Counting

As we approach the mid-way point of the year, we should take a moment to look back and appreciate how far the stock market has come in the first half. Year-to-date through last Friday, the S&P 500 index has gained a whopping 15.5% (including dividends), which is nearly double the... read more →
Jun 20

Is NVDA the GOAT?

The launch of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022 was a momentous occasion – it brought some of the possibilities that artificial intelligence holds into the public consciousness, and helped launch the stock price of the leading company involved in those efforts, Nvidia (NVDA), into the stratosphere.  NVDA has soared by... read more →
Jun 13

Cooler Inflation Doesn’t Sway the Fed

It doesn’t happen often.  The last time that both the monthly CPI inflation report and an FOMC policy decision fell on the same day was back in 2020.  Needless to say, the world was a much different place back then.  But with the two most widely-watched market events arriving together... read more →
Jun 11

Breadth Slightly Weakening

The S&P 500 hit another new all-time high yesterday; something it has accomplished once a week on average this year. It has been quite the run higher since November 2023 - moving higher by roughly 30% (although Nvidia alone is responsible for 1/3 of that gain!). However, since April, the... read more →
Jun 05

Labor market softening resumes

Following a brief acceleration in the first quarter of the year, the labor market appears to have resumed its softening trend. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings across the economy fell by 300,000 to 8.06 million.... read more →
May 31

PCE Friday

Consumption data was released this morning. In April, real consumer spending declined 0.1%, which a slightly weak start to Q2. Personal spending rose 0.2% and Incomes rose 0.3%, which were both weaker numbers than March. The savings to income ratio stayed at 3.6%, and should start to flatten out in... read more →