Jun
01
This note is going to go into some of the more granular, monthly technical work that we do, but with technicals being an important ‘building block’ in our investment process we thought it was important to share. And it’s all about monthly candles. Candles are a charting method to denote...
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May
31
The Conference Board’s Survey of Consumer Confidence showed that consumers have grown even more pessimistic towards the stock market as the percentage expecting higher stock prices declined to 28.6% while those expecting lower stock prices increased from 35.4% up to 37.5%. You can’t get on a plane nor book a reasonably...
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May
26
At two meetings I was in yesterday the topic of the current “narrow rally” was brought up. “Narrow rally” means just a few mega cap stocks going up a lot while the rest of the market does little. The big move in NVDA equity (+26% in a single day) on...
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May
25
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”– Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman in speech given in India in 1963 We have discussed before many times that money supply growth drives the direction of inflation. When money supply growth is soaring (M2 in chart below), inflation soon follows. Too much currency...
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May
23
There are three consensus views I see right now in the market: US recession sometime 2H23 US office real estate is a mess and will experience permanent loss/impairment The 4200 level on the SP500 is a HUGE technical level to watch here Sean has forgotten more about market technicals than...
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May
18
With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, Q1 2023 earnings season is drawing to a close. Even though this was the second consecutive quarter in which earnings declined on a year-over-year basis, results have come in much better than initially expected. As of...
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May
09
Everything is politics, including politics itself, investing, and the role of the Fed and its chair. Not really a surprise that after getting way behind inflation in late 2021/most of 2022 and embarking on the fastest/most aggressive rate hiking cycle ever, confidence in Fed chair Powell nearing historic lows. Heavy...
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May
04
As expected, the Fed hiked +25bps yesterday and the post-hike Powell press conference was the usual bad TV it always seems to become. Inflation isn’t the problem it was six months ago. The problem is that under the Powell watch, three major financial institutions have experienced classic bank runs in...
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May
02
Tomorrow brings the latest Federal Reserve decision, with another quarter-point hike viewed as a slam dunk – current market pricing shows a 93% probability of that outcome. That would bring the Fed Funds rate up to a range of 5-5.25%, which is what their “dot plot” projection from the March...
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Apr
28
The Fed has been aggressively hiking rates since March 2022, the yield curve has been inverted since last fall, and overall financial conditions have tightened dramatically. We think we’re headed towards recession; the market thinks we’re heading towards recession, everyone thinks we’re headed towards recession. The question isn’t “if, it’s...
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