Blog Center

Jul 31

Loan growth blues as recession looms

We talk about “cycle investing” all the time – that’s the time-tested belief that over time markets are driven by monetary policy and the cost and availability of credit.  It’s tough to have a growing economy and improving earnings when lending gets tight and the demand for credit falls.  History... read more →
Jul 27

An Inflection Point for Earnings?

Second quarter earnings season is in full swing, with this being the busiest week that has the largest number of S&P 500 companies due to report results.  As usual, investors are laser focused on the latest updates of how corporate America is performing, particularly for mega-cap Tech stocks to try... read more →
Jul 19

The US Dollar And Future Earnings Growth

The U.S. Dollar has fallen sharply since the CPI report continuing a downtrend that started at the end of last year. The Dollar has broken below the post COVID uptrend and has moved below key support at $101 (and the nice round number $100). Source: Stockcharts.com, as of 7/18/23  ... read more →
Jul 18

The Fed’s job is nearly done

Last week brought us fresh evidence that inflation continues to cool rapidly. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) only increased by 0.18% in June, after increasing by just 0.12% in May. This means that over the last two months, CPI increased at... read more →
Jul 14
Jul 12
Jul 05

High VIX = Good… Low VIX = Bad?

The VIX index, frequently referred to as “the Fear index”, is a widely followed measure of market volatility. It is derived from the prices of one-month call and put options on the S&P 500 index, providing us with a real time gauge of market participants’ expected volatility over the near... read more →
Jun 30

A look at where we have been

Eighteen months ago, the financial markets began their transition from a zero-interest world to a world of higher nominal and real yields.  The history books will have the final say, but those pages will likely include a chapter or two on how the global central banks printed nearly $8 trillion... read more →
Jun 27

Got inflation?

“Goods inflation” was the big story of 2020.  The pandemic happened, we tried to reopen the economy but factories weren’t open.  Lumber prices soared, container ships backed up at West Coast ports, 15-week backlog to get new home furniture.  Not enough goods – prices soared. “Service inflation” was the big... read more →
Jun 21