Blog Center

Aug 16

The Dog Days of Summer

One question I am getting a lot now goes like this:  “With the market having had such a strong YTD so far, is it over?  Time to sell, time to take risk off the table?  When the market has a big first half is the party usually over?”  Legit question... read more →
Aug 14
Aug 10

Inflation Keeps Moderating

Fresh data released this morning points to continued progress on the inflation front. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), both the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its core version (which excludes the often-volatile food and energy components) increased by just 0.2% in July, a level that is... read more →
Aug 04

Summer Payrolls Snoozefest

As if on cue to allow everyone to enjoy the last few weeks of summer, today’s labor report was mostly a snoozefest that came in very close to the official estimate with a gain of 187k jobs vs. 200k expected.  While that’s technically considered a slight miss, it’s still a... read more →
Aug 02
Jul 31

Loan growth blues as recession looms

We talk about “cycle investing” all the time – that’s the time-tested belief that over time markets are driven by monetary policy and the cost and availability of credit.  It’s tough to have a growing economy and improving earnings when lending gets tight and the demand for credit falls.  History... read more →
Jul 27

An Inflection Point for Earnings?

Second quarter earnings season is in full swing, with this being the busiest week that has the largest number of S&P 500 companies due to report results.  As usual, investors are laser focused on the latest updates of how corporate America is performing, particularly for mega-cap Tech stocks to try... read more →
Jul 19

The US Dollar And Future Earnings Growth

The U.S. Dollar has fallen sharply since the CPI report continuing a downtrend that started at the end of last year. The Dollar has broken below the post COVID uptrend and has moved below key support at $101 (and the nice round number $100). Source:, as of 7/18/23  ... read more →
Jul 18

The Fed’s job is nearly done

Last week brought us fresh evidence that inflation continues to cool rapidly. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) only increased by 0.18% in June, after increasing by just 0.12% in May. This means that over the last two months, CPI increased at... read more →
Jul 14