May
31
Consumption data was released this morning. In April, real consumer spending declined 0.1%, which a slightly weak start to Q2. Personal spending rose 0.2% and Incomes rose 0.3%, which were both weaker numbers than March. The savings to income ratio stayed at 3.6%, and should start to flatten out in...
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May
30
Before popping back up this week, the VIX Index briefly fell below 12 last week, reaching the lowest level since right before Covid. The VIX is a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index over the following 30 days, and it is derived by the market price...
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May
24
After spending the better part of the past couple of years bracing for a recession that never materialized, corporate CEOs are showing signs of renewed optimism lately. The CEO Confidence Survey plunged to a very recessionary level in the low 30s by the beginning of 2023, but as the economy...
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May
16
The streak of hotter than expected inflation data that we have witnessed so far this year finally shows signs of letting up, according to April CPI figures released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Specifically, headline CPI came in at 0.3% month-over-month, which was 0.1% lower than expected and...
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May
14
It’s another big week for the economy and markets with the latest reads on inflation for both consumers and businesses. First up this time is the Producer Price Index, which measures the change in prices paid at the wholesale level. At first glance, it came in worryingly above expectations with...
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May
09
As of today, roughly 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index have reported earnings for Q1. As we wrote a few weeks ago, a weak start to the season initially caused the aggregate earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate to drop to just below $54, which would have implied roughly 0% year-over-year...
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May
07
You have to love the market. As soon as an investment is utterly hated, it springs to life with incredible vigor. China might have been the worst place to invest since 2021, falling roughly 60% through January of 2024. ‘Univestable’ is what we were told. Since that time, however, that...
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May
03
Not too hot, not too cold, but just right – that sums up today’s employment report nicely. Capping off a very busy week full of corporate earnings reports and the latest Fed announcement, this morning’s jobs report showed that hiring remains at a healthy level but also helped to reassure...
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May
02
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week for the third time this year. As widely expected, the FOMC left rates unchanged in the 5.25-5.5% range. However, following a streak of hotter-than-expected inflation data in recent months, investors’ main concern was that Chairman Powell would strike a more hawkish...
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Feb
27
As we have said many times prior, it is credit – not love – that makes the world go ‘round. The cost and availability of credit allows for investment in people and plants with the hope of economic growth. The lack of such – or deterioration of such – warrants...
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