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Oct 10
Oct 05

Recession Model Update

As we enter Q4, the economy continues to have significant momentum behind it. A consensus of economist estimates the economy should have grown by 3% in Q3. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model’s current reading of 4.9% suggests there may be upside risk to that forecast. However, even against such... read more →
Oct 03
Sep 13
Sep 12
Sep 07

Three chart Thursday is here!!!

Back-to-school day in Boston, opening night for the NFL, and three charts for your Thursday morning!!!  LET’S GO!!! Chart#1 - Temporary job growth rolling over:  A deeper dive into last Friday’s non-farm-payroll data noted that temporary jobs appear to have peaked and are now rolling over.  History says first temporary... read more →
Aug 29
Aug 24

Powell’s last stand: a Jackson Hole preview

Fed chair Powell speaks Friday at 10am from Jackson Hole.  It’s an important speech with very important implications for markets.  I expect Powell to be his normal hawkish self with regards to rates and the battle versus inflation – but not too hawkish.  Rates have crept higher recently (especially the... read more →
Aug 23

Sentiment No Longer a Tailwind

At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index is in the midst of a nearly 5% pullback from its recent peak on 7/31. Corrections of this sort have been a remarkably frequent occurrence in the history of the stock market. Since January 1928, the S&P 500 index has suffered... read more →
Aug 18

On This Correction In Equities

As Rich wrote on Wednesday, this is historically a weak period for equity markets through the end of October, and right on cue the markets are correcting. Of course, this is happening right after excessive optimism once again gripped the market. Sentiment was abysmal in October of 2022 and close... read more →