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Dec 12

2025 – An M&A Story?

An insurance deal, an advertising deal, a major private credit purchase by Blackrock, even chocolate is getting in on the mergers and acquisitions push over the last few weeks. These are big transactions across multiple industries. As we move into 2025, this could be a major theme that helps broaden... read more →
Dec 10

Election Results Excite Small Businesses

Despite the overall economy continually outperforming expectations for the past couple of years, small businesses have mostly been in a dour mood.  Indeed, the monthly Small Business Optimism Index survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) wallowed in the low 90s from early 2022 through October of this... read more →
Dec 04

Everything is Awesome

So far, 2024 has been a great year for the stock market. Through the end of November, the S&P 500 Index has gained 28.06%, which is all the more impressive considering it is coming on the back of a 26.26% gain in 2023. To be sure, a lot of good... read more →
Nov 19

Lower Gas Prices Giving Shoppers a Boost

While the generalized rate of inflation has come all the way down from a peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 2.6% today, very few things are outright less expensive now than they were two years ago. A notable exception is gasoline, whose national average price is approaching $3/gallon, down from... read more →
Nov 04
Oct 30

High Yield Spreads Are Tight

High yield bonds - there are two parts to the story: the spreads are so tight that it makes them bad value, but tighter spreads mean great things for earnings and equities. The first part of the story is that you as an investor are perhaps taking more risk than... read more →
Oct 18

The Case for a Soft Landing #3: The Market

Consumption makes up roughly 68% of the US economy, so any discussion of a soft landing cannot ignore the health of the consumer. Despite evident signs of a slowdown relative to the post-pandemic “revenge spending” period, the outlook for consumer spending remains strong given the excellent financial shape of US... read more →
Oct 11
Oct 07

The Case for a Soft Landing #2: Consumer Strength

Consumption makes up roughly 68% of the US economy, so any discussion of a soft landing cannot ignore the health of the consumer. Despite evident signs of a slowdown relative to the post-pandemic “revenge spending” period, the outlook for consumer spending remains strong given the excellent financial shape of US... read more →
Oct 02

The Case for a Soft Landing #1: Manufacturing Rebound

Data released yesterday indicated that US manufacturing activity remained subdued in September. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business came in at 47.2, marking the sixth consecutive month that the gauge remained below 50, which is the demarcation line between contraction and expansion in manufacturing activity. To be... read more →