Jun
05
The CPI Index captures trends in consumer prices, the stuff that you and I all consume each day in various ways. The CPI Index is roughly comprised of 40% housing costs, 20% for food costs, and 40% a catch-all of other expenses. One big driver of CPI inflation in 2022...
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Jun
02
As expected, our beloved elected officials waited until the very last moment and then cut a deal that does little for the budget but does avert a financial calamity. I can’t tell you all how happy I am not to be discussing the debt ceiling issue until late 2024. It...
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Jun
02
It seems like forever since we started talking about recession. The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries (a.k.a. the yield curve), one of the earliest indicators of recession, first inverted 14 months ago. In today’s world of fast-paced financials markets and news cycles, 14 months is forever. So, it...
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Jun
01
This note is going to go into some of the more granular, monthly technical work that we do, but with technicals being an important ‘building block’ in our investment process we thought it was important to share. And it’s all about monthly candles. Candles are a charting method to denote...
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May
31
The Conference Board’s Survey of Consumer Confidence showed that consumers have grown even more pessimistic towards the stock market as the percentage expecting higher stock prices declined to 28.6% while those expecting lower stock prices increased from 35.4% up to 37.5%. You can’t get on a plane nor book a reasonably...
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May
26
At two meetings I was in yesterday the topic of the current “narrow rally” was brought up. “Narrow rally” means just a few mega cap stocks going up a lot while the rest of the market does little. The big move in NVDA equity (+26% in a single day) on...
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May
25
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”– Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman in speech given in India in 1963 We have discussed before many times that money supply growth drives the direction of inflation. When money supply growth is soaring (M2 in chart below), inflation soon follows. Too much currency...
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May
23
There are three consensus views I see right now in the market: US recession sometime 2H23 US office real estate is a mess and will experience permanent loss/impairment The 4200 level on the SP500 is a HUGE technical level to watch here Sean has forgotten more about market technicals than...
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May
18
With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, Q1 2023 earnings season is drawing to a close. Even though this was the second consecutive quarter in which earnings declined on a year-over-year basis, results have come in much better than initially expected. As of...
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May
09
Everything is politics, including politics itself, investing, and the role of the Fed and its chair. Not really a surprise that after getting way behind inflation in late 2021/most of 2022 and embarking on the fastest/most aggressive rate hiking cycle ever, confidence in Fed chair Powell nearing historic lows. Heavy...
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