Blog Center

Jan 04
Jan 03

2022: A year like none other

Here’s the report card on capital market asset classes for 2022: What worked: very, very little. Oil (either flavor, brent or WTI), energy equities, MLPs, and silver was up modestly. Gold (allegedly the inflation hedge) was flat in the fastest inflation environment in 50 years. Most major equity markets (including... read more →
Dec 15
Dec 13
Dec 08

The real yield curve inversion

Market convention is to quote the shape of the UST yield curve by looking at 10Y UST v 2Y UST. Every bond trader and bond trading desk does it and in the institutional fixed income world this is what you quote in conversation about the shape of the yield curve.... read more →
Dec 07

The Great Valuation Reset (GVR)

The S&P 500 is currently down roughly 16% so far this year, which would make 2022 its worst calendar year since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and would also fall in the lowest decile of historical calendar year returns since the Great Depression (GD). So, to say that 2022 has... read more →
Dec 02

Labor report – “good means bad”

A better-than-expected jobs report this morning is sadly not what the market was/is looking for. Tough to describe this labor report as anything other than “tight”. +240k jobs after revisions for prior months, strong wage growth, low unemployment level, labor participation waning. It’s a strong jobs report across the board.... read more →
Dec 01

Chicago PMI data says recession imminent

Yesterday’s reaction to dovish comments from Fed chair Powell was most certainly welcomed by the markets. Big positive moves in risk assets and lower yields across the board. This wasn’t the end but, as Winston Churchill said, perhaps the end of the beginning of this extended period of market volatility.... read more →
Dec 01

Let’s talk 200 day MA

The 200-day moving average (ma) is no silver bullet; but as we reflect on price movement over the last few months it does provide us with pieces to the puzzle. The S&P 500 crossed below the 200-day moving average on April 8, 2022, and it remained there for over 7... read more →
Nov 28