Apr
26
“Money makes the world go ‘round - Still don’t nothing move but the money” – Cabaret the Musical (1990s revival) Money – and the growth of money supply – influences everything in the capital markets and the economy. Booms, busts, recessions, recoveries. Fear and greed alike. All of this links...
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Apr
25
More and more evidence is now pointing to the much-anticipated recession beginning to materialize over the next few months. Last Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed released its Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, a survey which measures changes in manufacturing activity covering the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware region. While this is only...
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Apr
19
We hear this question a lot; and most of the time it is a foregone conclusion that we will revisit the 2022 stock market lows. War, recession, the Fed, regional banks, commercial real estate… there are so many pessimistic investors out there waiting for large declines to happen. So, a...
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Apr
13
The combination of tighter financial conditions, higher interest rates, a slowing economy AND shrinking deposits due to a banking crisis (SVB, Signature Bank, FRC next ?) is now manifesting itself in materially lower loan growth. Lending growth hasn’t been this bad since just after COVID hit in 2Q20. Lower-er. Not...
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Apr
12
This morning brought the latest read on inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Overall, it was mostly in-line with expectations with further signs of disinflation, and a potentially significant development looking ahead. The good news is that the headline CPI slowed to 5%, down...
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Apr
11
Markets have shown to advance and move forward in the face of a “wall of worry”. Walls of Worry come in many forms, but most often they look like excessive pessimism, weak investor sentiment and poor positioning AFTER something has gone wrong and markets have ALREADY gone down. For almost...
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Apr
05
Q1 2023 earnings reporting season is officially starting next week. As usual, financials will be the first to take center stage, with none other than First Republic kicking things off on Thursday, and the big banks following over the next few days. Bank reports always get a good deal of...
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Apr
04
2020 was about COVID and the scientific search for a vaccine. 2021 was about quasi-reopening of the global economy and too much fiscal and monetary stimulus here in the USA (probably in the neighborhood of $3 trillion too much). 2022 was about inflation and the Fed getting too far behind...
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Mar
23
Today marks the 3-year anniversary of the COVID market low: March 23, 2020. Three years ago today, mankind, civilization and global markets were reeling from the onset of COVID. The daily images of illness and death were real and shocking. The global economy had been purposefully shuttered. Markets were collapsing...
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Mar
22
Over the course of the past 24hrs, odds have dramatically increased that the Fed will hike by +25bps at 2pm today. 2y UST yields two weeks ago were 5.2%. Those quickly fell to 3.8% when Silicon Valley Bank imploded but 2y UST yields have been on the rise the past...
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