The Conference Board’s Survey of Consumer Confidence showed that consumers have grown even more pessimistic towards the stock market as the percentage expecting higher stock prices declined to 28.6% while those expecting lower stock prices increased from 35.4% up to 37.5%. You can’t get on a plane nor book a reasonably priced hotel for a summer vacation…but nobody is bullish on stocks.
We are now in a stretch of 17 months in which consumers are expecting a negative/weak stock market going forward. You have to go back to April 2009 to see similar data (and that was actually AFTER two years of the Great Financial Crisis/huge market correction and just weeks AFTER the market bottomed in early March 2009. Key word = AFTER).
History and data say 17 months is a long time to hate something – but that’s where we’re at – a hated market. History and data say “euphoria” precedes weak market returns and vice versa. This beleaguered and much mistrusted market remains hated. It’s a great counter-indicator and a good thing for forward returns.
Source: Conference Board and Jones Trading LLC as of May 31, 2023
Richard Barrett
Chief Investment Officer
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