As expected, the Fed hiked +25bps yesterday and the post-hike Powell press conference was the usual bad TV it always seems to become. Inflation isn’t the problem it was six... read more →
The Fed has been aggressively hiking rates since March 2022, the yield curve has been inverted since last fall, and overall financial conditions have tightened dramatically. We think we’re headed... read more →
“Money makes the world go ‘round - Still don’t nothing move but the money” – Cabaret the Musical (1990s revival) Money – and the growth of money supply – influences... read more →
The combination of tighter financial conditions, higher interest rates, a slowing economy AND shrinking deposits due to a banking crisis (SVB, Signature Bank, FRC next ?) is now manifesting itself... read more →
Markets have shown to advance and move forward in the face of a “wall of worry”. Walls of Worry come in many forms, but most often they look like excessive... read more →
2020 was about COVID and the scientific search for a vaccine. 2021 was about quasi-reopening of the global economy and too much fiscal and monetary stimulus here in the USA... read more →
Today marks the 3-year anniversary of the COVID market low: March 23, 2020. Three years ago today, mankind, civilization and global markets were reeling from the onset of COVID. The... read more →
Over the course of the past 24hrs, odds have dramatically increased that the Fed will hike by +25bps at 2pm today. 2y UST yields two weeks ago were 5.2%. Those... read more →
The events of the past 10 days – including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the extraordinary measures enacted by the Fed to protect/quasi guarantee deposits of any shape... read more →
The death of the nation’s 16th largest bank was both swift and shocking and the events of the past few days as it relates to the bank run that went... read more →
