The broad market backdrop continues to play out as we await the Fed’s 50bps rate hike on Wednesday. Inflation is elevated but coming down very quickly. The US economy is... read more →
Market convention is to quote the shape of the UST yield curve by looking at 10Y UST v 2Y UST. Every bond trader and bond trading desk does it and... read more →
A better-than-expected jobs report this morning is sadly not what the market was/is looking for. Tough to describe this labor report as anything other than “tight”. +240k jobs after revisions... read more →
Yesterday’s reaction to dovish comments from Fed chair Powell was most certainly welcomed by the markets. Big positive moves in risk assets and lower yields across the board. This wasn’t... read more →
Huge week for economic data – with all eyes pointing towards Friday’s labor report. Consensus estimates are calling for +200,000 job growth in Friday’s nonfarm payroll number. For the 54th... read more →
Over the past month or so, we’ve survived 3Q22 earnings season and a fairly major Fed announcement. Not small things in a year filled with volatility but both of those... read more →
Similar to last week’s CPI inflation data, this morning’s PPI inflation (producer price index) data noted similar softness. Markets like softness. Bad now equals good. PPI estimates for October were... read more →
This morning’s long-awaited CPI inflation data came in softer than expected and the market loves it. SP500 futures were positive +6pts heading into the 8:30am EST CPI inflation announcement –... read more →
I want to talk about market cycles and just how different and unusual the current one is. My apologies for the length of this email, but sometimes there’s no appropriate... read more →
The rarest thing of all: today we had both a total lunar eclipse (technically it was a “blood moon”) and yours truly discussing election cycles and market returns. Rare or... read more →