Fed chair Powell performed roughly “as expected” at Jackson Hole on Friday. Lots of progress to date against inflation. Inflation is going down, but it remains elevated. The path forward... read more →
Fed chair Powell speaks Friday at 10am from Jackson Hole. It’s an important speech with very important implications for markets. I expect Powell to be his normal hawkish self with... read more →
One question I am getting a lot now goes like this: “With the market having had such a strong YTD so far, is it over? Time to sell, time to... read more →
The US economy continues to hang in there just fine but inflationary data on many fronts continues to fall and the bond market is pricing in just a 10% probability... read more →
One of the Fed’s two jobs is to manage inflation around a long-term target (roughly 2.5%). They try to impose price stability into the economy and attempt to manage such... read more →
We talk about “cycle investing” all the time – that’s the time-tested belief that over time markets are driven by monetary policy and the cost and availability of credit. It’s... read more →
It’s my belief the Fed will hike one final time at their late July meeting and then go on an extended “pause”. Higher rates, tighter financial conditions, and ongoing quantitative... read more →
We have been saying it for a while: inflation is falling and falling quickly. 2020 was about COVID and goods inflation. 2021 was about vaccination and service inflation. 2022 was... read more →
Eighteen months ago, the financial markets began their transition from a zero-interest world to a world of higher nominal and real yields. The history books will have the final say,... read more →
“Goods inflation” was the big story of 2020. The pandemic happened, we tried to reopen the economy but factories weren’t open. Lumber prices soared, container ships backed up at West... read more →
