Blog Center

Sep 22
Sep 20

Quantitative tightening on all fronts

As markets brace for the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow 2pm EST (+75bps overwhelming consensus…it’s already priced in and known), economic demand continues to be destroyed and inflation expectations are falling. Gold down -18% over past 8 months, lumber prices down -65% over past 8 months, shipping freight rates down -52% over... read more →
Sep 16

Recession odds keep rising

The economic data released over the last couple of months has painted a picture of an economy that is holding up fairly well, all things considered. Surveys of manufacturing and service activity halted their declines that started last year, and remain at levels consistent with economic expansion. Hundreds of thousands... read more →
Sep 15
Sep 08

Economic slowdown at every turn

Economic demand destruction well underway The excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus of 2021 led to a demand spike that resulted in an inflation spike. Financial conditions have been getting tighter over the past 8 months in response to such. Higher interest rates, wider credit spreads, and a strong USD are all symptomatic... read more →
Sep 02

Payroll report

A few quick takeaways from this morning’s payroll report: Non-farm payroll for August 2022 grew by +315,000, right in line with the +318,000 estimate. It’s actually an aberration that it came in so close to the estimate. These are complex statistical models prone to be off in any one month... read more →
Aug 30

From goods to services

It’s a fabulous Tuesday morning. Schools in Maryland have opened, and the weather is starting to moderate. Now, we need inflation to follow! On that front, good news continues to come and we still believe peak inflation to be behind us. For essentially this entire year we have described an... read more →
Aug 25
Aug 23

Thoughts as Fed officials gather

The Fed convenes later this week at Jackson Hole for their annual meeting/retreat/gathering/etc. Agenda looks like Wednesday night dinner, Thursday all day academic session on economic white papers, and Fed chair Powell speaks Friday morning. If you’ve got a PhD in monetary theory or just love a good 300-page summary... read more →
Aug 19

Lower demand and lower inflation

Higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions are clearly now impacting demand.  It took 3-4 months to take effect, but the combination of those two things is doing what the Fed wants to do to fight inflationary pressures:  purposefully destroy economic demand.  Housing slowing, lumber prices down, gasoline at the... read more →