Jul
28
This morning’s GDP report noted contraction for the second quarter in a row. We can debate inventory builds and trade imbalances and the math underlying the calculation of real GDP, but the official number says negative real GDP growth for a 2nd quarter in a row and the textbook defines...
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Jul
26
The bond market already has hiked rates to 3%. The Fed is playing catch up but will get there in the coming 3 months. What they do from there will determine whether we get a FY23 recession. If the Fed focuses on backwards data via a rear view mirror they...
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Jul
19
It is hard to believe it has already been more than a year since Congress Wealth Management (“Congress”) acquired Pinnacle Advisor Solutions. We have been working diligently over the past year to ensure a seamless transition and integration of our team into Congress and to improve our offering to advisors....
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Jul
19
Volatility fatigue led to extreme weak investor sentiment which has now finally translated in defensive portfolio positioning. Actions speak louder than words. Fund managers surveyed have now taken up their cash balances to extremely high levels. Phenomenal counter indicator. Historical forward returns from high levels of cash are well-above average....
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Jul
15
There’s no sugarcoating it – it’s been a very rough week for all of the peak inflationists who’ve been arguing that the worst is behind us. First the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and then the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in well ahead of expectations and soared to new multi-decade...
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Jul
14
The demise of meme stocks, day trading, and Robinhood (HOOD) Excess money supply growth led to excess inflation which led to a rise in bond yields. That’s the secondary source of the current market volatility. The primary source is that the Fed has been too slow to react to all of the...
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Jul
12
The pain inflicted on high quality, long duration bonds Between March 2020 and December 2021, the US produced about $8 trillion in stimulus to economically battle the pandemic. Roughly half of that came in the form of monetary stimulus from the Fed and half came from fiscal stimulus via stimulus...
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Jun
30
New WebsiteWhat does behind the curve look like? The Federal Reserve is about to tighten monetary policy, i.e., raise rates, while high yield spreads are above their historical mean. They have not done this at all going back to 2000 and have only done it twice since the 1970s (roughly...
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Jun
23
Higher prices have led to tighter financial conditions. Mortgage rates up a lot, gasoline prices up a lot, UST yields higher, credit spreads wider. For the past five months, both the bond and stock market has basically been doing the Fed’s job for it – tightening financial conditions in the face of...
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Jun
21
As the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, the once red-hot housing market is starting to sputter. Based on data released this morning, only 5.41 million existing homes were sold in the US in May, which is 3.4% lower than the prior month and 8.6% lower than the...
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