Blog Center

Oct 31

Seasonal “treat” ahead?

Today is Halloween, and so far it’s been a very spooky year for investors. Inflation, rate hikes, geopolitical conflict and recession fears have all been stirred up in a witches’ brew of volatility to drive equity and bond returns lower. But could the remainder of 2022 finally hold more “treat”... read more →
Oct 27

Three chart Thursday

The market has done a reasonably good job this week shaking off some big, large cap tech earnings misses. Weak ad trends at GOOG and MSFT and then last night’s big META whiff. AAPL and AMZON report tonite. The ability to advance when the news isn’t great is actually a... read more →
Oct 26

Other markets and the S&P

Inter-market relationships have been much more important for stocks than in past years. I have been highlighting in meetings, and most recently in the quarterly investment call, that the US Dollar is one of the key relationships for the direction of stocks. You can see it in the charts! The... read more →
Oct 26

Volatility goes two ways

Despite overwhelmingly bearish investor sentiment (or perhaps because of it), the S&P 500 index managed to rally 4.75% last week (and tacked on another 1.19% yesterday). What is perhaps even more impressive is the fact that last week was only the 4th best week for the stock market so far... read more →
Oct 21

Interim Q3 earnings update

Roughly 20% of companies in the S&P 500 index have reported Q3 results as of this morning. So far, the financial sector has taken center stage, with all the big banks reporting over the last week or so. Those reports were followed by investors very closely, as banks, more than... read more →
Oct 20

More demand destruction in housing

While the Fed continues to maintain its focus squarely on slowing inflation and employment, in the meantime it’s the housing market bearing the brunt of their demand destruction campaign. This week brought the latest evidence of a major slowdown unfolding. On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders released their... read more →
Oct 17

Let earnings season begin

Lots of bank earnings the past few days. I don’t see many surprises so far in what has been released:  M&A activity down A LOT because the Fed is in hiking mode and deal flow is temporarily nonexistent, loss reserve up some, as the banks start to front-run an early 2023... read more →
Oct 14

Yesterday was a fun day

When positioning is historically bearish you get reversal days like we saw yesterday. Intraday, the S&P 500 moved from a low of 3491 to a high of 3685 which is a 5.5% move from low to high. Adding in the fact that 3491 was a new 52 week low, this... read more →
Oct 13

Three chart Thursday

Last Friday’s strong payroll report noted a robust and healthy labor market – which is the last thing the market wants to hear. The market wants to hear weakness and while there are many signs that some components of inflation are cooling and headed lower, the labor market isn’t one... read more →
Oct 07

Decent labor report = “bad news”

This morning’s non-farm payroll report might have noted the weakest gain since April 2021 but there’s not enough damage in the labor market yet to cause the Fed to “pause”.  +263k new jobs was in line with market expectations. Another +75bps hike in Fed funds rates in early November is now... read more →