Conventional wisdom would suggest that Fed easing cycles should be bullish for bonds, given the basic relationship according to which lower interest rates result in higher bond prices. However, a... read more →
The so-called Sahm rule, created by economist Claudia Sahm, is a recession indicator based on the unemployment rate. The indicator results in a recession signal when the 3-month moving average... read more →
The VIX Index, often referred to as “fear gauge”, is a market-based measure of expected volatility for the S&P 500 Index. Before the US stock market open this morning, the... read more →
Data released this morning provided fresh evidence that the labor market is softening. First, the ADP national employment report estimated that 122k private jobs were created during the month of... read more →
As of yesterday’s market close, the Russell 2000 Index, a broad and widely followed gauge of small capitalization stocks, has gained more than 1% daily for the past five consecutive... read more →
We have written at length in the past about the yield curve’s historically reliable track record of predicting recessions. Yield curve inversions preceded all of the 8 recessions that the... read more →
As we approach the mid-way point of the year, we should take a moment to look back and appreciate how far the stock market has come in the first half.... read more →
Following a brief acceleration in the first quarter of the year, the labor market appears to have resumed its softening trend. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released... read more →
Before popping back up this week, the VIX Index briefly fell below 12 last week, reaching the lowest level since right before Covid. The VIX is a measure of the... read more →
The streak of hotter than expected inflation data that we have witnessed so far this year finally shows signs of letting up, according to April CPI figures released yesterday by... read more →