Our internal recession model has been flashing red for a while, and although lots of progress has been made vs. inflation the US economy has held up very, very while. ... read more →
We here at CWM practice and preach “cycle investing” – a time honored tradition that reflects our belief that markets and economies have defined “cycles” and that those cycles are... read more →
Composite PMI readings come out each month and represent a monthly snapshot on the health of the manufacturing and service economies. A reading above 50 is considered good and the... read more →
We are one week into the 3Q23 the earnings reporting season. 64 companies have reported so far, 13% of the SP500 and 30% of those reporting to date have been... read more →
If the Fed doesn’t hike again, we likely have a mild recession (“soft landing”). If they do hike again, the probability grows significantly/exponentially that the landing is a lot less... read more →
In the past three months, the yield on long-dated UST has increased by about +100bps. The front end of the yield curve has barely budged but yields on 10y-30y UST... read more →
Impossible to ignore the material move higher in 10y UST yields. 4.73% on the 10y UST is its highest level since late 2007. Three take-ways from me on this: The... read more →
Lots of attention this morning to CPI inflation headlines. Energy running hot on low inventory levels, used cars continue to drift lower in price, shelter costs a mixed bag. IGNORE ALL... read more →
It’s this week’s inflation data that is probably the headline to focus on, if one is into focusing on headlines. The bond market is currently saying the chances of a... read more →
Back-to-school day in Boston, opening night for the NFL, and three charts for your Thursday morning!!! LET’S GO!!! Chart#1 - Temporary job growth rolling over: A deeper dive into last... read more →
