Last week brought us fresh evidence that inflation continues to cool rapidly. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) only increased by 0.18%... read more →
It’s my belief the Fed will hike one final time at their late July meeting and then go on an extended “pause”. Higher rates, tighter financial conditions, and ongoing quantitative... read more →
We have been saying it for a while: inflation is falling and falling quickly. 2020 was about COVID and goods inflation. 2021 was about vaccination and service inflation. 2022 was... read more →
The VIX index, frequently referred to as “the Fear index”, is a widely followed measure of market volatility. It is derived from the prices of one-month call and put options... read more →
Eighteen months ago, the financial markets began their transition from a zero-interest world to a world of higher nominal and real yields. The history books will have the final say,... read more →
“Goods inflation” was the big story of 2020. The pandemic happened, we tried to reopen the economy but factories weren’t open. Lumber prices soared, container ships backed up at West... read more →
About 40% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is comprised of shelter costs. Shelter comes in various forms but apartment supply/demand drivers are a big underlying factor in the direction... read more →
All-important CPI inflation data out this morning, and while the market’s reaction has been favorable since 8:30am EST there’s lots to evaluate here. Has the headline CPI inflation number fallen... read more →
Much has been written over the last few months about the narrowness of the market (poor breadth). The S&P 500 is up 12%+ year to date but there have been... read more →
The S&P 500 is up 20% from the October lows and predictably more and more investors are bullish on continued gains. Price leads sentiment. The latest AAII survey published yesterday... read more →