With fears of oncoming recession still swirling, the corporate bond market continues to mostly mimic a big shoulder-shrug about that very prospect. As we’ve noted, the difference in yield between... read more →
Yesterday’s CPI inflation data notes an economy that still has elevated inflation, but the trajectory of inflation is cooling and cooling very quickly. Core CPI excluding shelter costs was up... read more →
We talk often/always/incessantly about “cycles”. Market cycles are driven by the broad availability and cost of money. Market cycles are driven by economic growth and contraction. They are driven by... read more →
Recession, earnings, the Fed, ongoing war, housing concerns, debt ceiling, over-valuation…. The gloom can crush you. Don’t listen to it. Look at the data: S&P 500 price is above the... read more →
We continue to believe that the likelihood of a recession in 2023 is someplace between absolutely certain and virtually guaranteed. Our recession model has been signaling that for a while... read more →
Financial assets performance Jan 2023 v Jan 2022 – what a difference a year makes, especially after the fastest rate hiking cycle in the history of the Fed. We’re onto... read more →
The long-term growth in money supply (M2) and the long-term level of inflation (CPI) do track together. Money supply over long periods of time has grown about +5%. That level... read more →
In 2022, investors were hyper focused on inflation and the Fed, so much so that bad news (on the economy) was often met with a positive reaction by the stock... read more →
We’ve been talking about weak investor sentiment now dating back to last spring AFTER inflation started rippin’, AFTER the Fed finally awoke from their 2022 winter slumber, AFTER interest rates... read more →
As our Sean Dillon has been saying for a while now, underlying market technicals have dramatically improved since late last spring. The underlying trend and breadth of stocks has shifted... read more →