Conventional wisdom would suggest that Fed easing cycles should be bullish for bonds, given the basic relationship according to which lower interest rates result in higher bond prices. However, a... read more →
Over the past two days, we got the latest read on inflation with the release of the August Consumer Price and Producer Price Indexes. On a core basis (ex-food &... read more →
The August payroll release this morning showed a gain of 142k jobs for the month while the unemployment rate moved slightly lower to 4.2%. Underneath the surface there were some... read more →
The so-called Sahm rule, created by economist Claudia Sahm, is a recession indicator based on the unemployment rate. The indicator results in a recession signal when the 3-month moving average... read more →
As we wait, and the anticipation builds, for the Fed to lay the groundwork for a new easing cycle the market has, as usual, moved in advance. The 10-year treasury... read more →
A sense of calm has continued to settle over markets after the eruption of volatility a couple of weeks ago. Stocks are on pace to finish the week with healthy... read more →
The latest inflation data came out yesterday and today. Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand moved lower to 2.2% on a year over year reading. Consumer Price Index (CPI),... read more →
As a highly volatile week draws to a close, the price action so far today reflects a relative sense of calm and suggests that stocks are going to finish the... read more →
The VIX Index, often referred to as “fear gauge”, is a market-based measure of expected volatility for the S&P 500 Index. Before the US stock market open this morning, the... read more →
In the strange world of navigating financial markets, sometimes good news can be bad, and bad news can be good. This was the case earlier in the year when inflation... read more →