Sep
29
Another quarter is soon drawing to a close and investors will once again turn their focus to the latest corporate results. With the next round of news on inflation and the Federal Reserve still a few weeks away, earnings announcements will take center stage and help to shed light on...
read more →
Sep
26
Fed chair Powell’s folly continues. It’s quite the body of work. First problem was doing nothing in 1Q22 as inflation was rising and the Fed kept money printing/bond buying. Second problem was initiating rate hikes too little and too slow in 2Q. Now the problem is Powell talking tough and raising rates while...
read more →
Sep
22
Pardon the reference to the great Earth, Wind and Fire lyrics but yesterday’s performance by Fed chair Powell was uber hawkish, lots of tough talk about rates and inflation and the path forward. Not really a lot good to take out of it so I won’t try. I wish he was half...
read more →
Sep
20
As markets brace for the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow 2pm EST (+75bps overwhelming consensus…it’s already priced in and known), economic demand continues to be destroyed and inflation expectations are falling. Gold down -18% over past 8 months, lumber prices down -65% over past 8 months, shipping freight rates down -52% over...
read more →
Sep
16
The economic data released over the last couple of months has painted a picture of an economy that is holding up fairly well, all things considered. Surveys of manufacturing and service activity halted their declines that started last year, and remain at levels consistent with economic expansion. Hundreds of thousands...
read more →
Sep
15
Tuesday’s market meltdown of -4% off a bad CPI print warrants both comment and context. Here goes. Since 1950, the market has gone down -4% in a single day 53 times. That’s 53 times out of a total of approximately 17,400 trading days. The market’s reaction Wednesday to a bad CPI print was...
read more →
Sep
08
Economic demand destruction well underway The excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus of 2021 led to a demand spike that resulted in an inflation spike. Financial conditions have been getting tighter over the past 8 months in response to such. Higher interest rates, wider credit spreads, and a strong USD are all symptomatic...
read more →
Sep
02
A few quick takeaways from this morning’s payroll report: Non-farm payroll for August 2022 grew by +315,000, right in line with the +318,000 estimate. It’s actually an aberration that it came in so close to the estimate. These are complex statistical models prone to be off in any one month...
read more →
Aug
30
It’s a fabulous Tuesday morning. Schools in Maryland have opened, and the weather is starting to moderate. Now, we need inflation to follow! On that front, good news continues to come and we still believe peak inflation to be behind us. For essentially this entire year we have described an...
read more →
Aug
25
Over the past 8 months, financial conditions have tightened a lot. Interest rates higher, mortgage rates higher, and a stronger USD are all symptomatic of tighter financial conditions. The Fed sees this and wants this to happen. In their minds, the central banker playbook calls for tighter financial conditions in order...
read more →
« Previous Page — Next Page »
