Consumption makes up roughly 68% of the US economy, so any discussion of a soft landing cannot ignore the health of the consumer. Despite evident signs of a slowdown relative... read more →
Data released yesterday indicated that US manufacturing activity remained subdued in September. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business came in at 47.2, marking the sixth consecutive month... read more →
No, I’m not referring to the stock market even though the S&P 500 Index rose to another all-time high yesterday, it’s 43rd of the year. Impressively, 2024 has climbed into... read more →
For quite some time now, Chinese economic activity has been disappointing, slowing to its worst growth rate in 2 years. Additionally, China has experienced 5 consecutive quarters of deflation which... read more →
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to launch the latest monetary easing cycle by going big with a half point cut to the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), instead of just a... read more →
Conventional wisdom would suggest that Fed easing cycles should be bullish for bonds, given the basic relationship according to which lower interest rates result in higher bond prices. However, a... read more →
Over the past two days, we got the latest read on inflation with the release of the August Consumer Price and Producer Price Indexes. On a core basis (ex-food &... read more →
The August payroll release this morning showed a gain of 142k jobs for the month while the unemployment rate moved slightly lower to 4.2%. Underneath the surface there were some... read more →
The so-called Sahm rule, created by economist Claudia Sahm, is a recession indicator based on the unemployment rate. The indicator results in a recession signal when the 3-month moving average... read more →
As we wait, and the anticipation builds, for the Fed to lay the groundwork for a new easing cycle the market has, as usual, moved in advance. The 10-year treasury... read more →
