While the Fed continues to maintain its focus squarely on slowing inflation and employment, in the meantime it’s the housing market bearing the brunt of their demand destruction campaign. This... read more →
Lots of bank earnings the past few days. I don’t see many surprises so far in what has been released: M&A activity down A LOT because the Fed is in hiking... read more →
When positioning is historically bearish you get reversal days like we saw yesterday. Intraday, the S&P 500 moved from a low of 3491 to a high of 3685 which is... read more →
Last Friday’s strong payroll report noted a robust and healthy labor market – which is the last thing the market wants to hear. The market wants to hear weakness and... read more →
This morning’s non-farm payroll report might have noted the weakest gain since April 2021 but there’s not enough damage in the labor market yet to cause the Fed to “pause”. ... read more →
We talk a lot about breadth because ‘participation’ to the upside is vital for a sustained move higher. We want to see the majority of troops following the general! Additionally,... read more →
Yesterday’s job openings (JOLTs) data notes a weakening in the labor market. Tighter financial conditions clearly starting to impact labor demand. Job openings fell by -1.1m openings, the single largest monthly decline... read more →
One of the commonly quoted measures of a recession is the ISM Manufacturing data going below a reading of 50. >50 means economic expansion and <50 means economic contraction. Yesterday’s ISM data... read more →
As we have discussed in prior communications, the Fed has been aggressively hiking interest rates in order to slow down the economy and get inflation under control, and it is... read more →
Another quarter is soon drawing to a close and investors will once again turn their focus to the latest corporate results. With the next round of news on inflation and... read more →