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- February 4, 2025
Latest Tariff News Underscores Heightened Policy Risk
Markets were rattled yesterday morning with the news over the weekend that President Trump planned to apply tariffs of 25%..
read more - January 28, 2025
DeepSeeking an Explanation from Big Tech
With about 20% of companies in the S&P 500 index having reported earnings for Q4 of last year, it is..
read more - January 23, 2025
A Much Better 10 Years For Fixed Income
Government bond total returns have been disappointing over the last 10 years annualizing 1% from 2014 to 2024. Due to..
read more - January 17, 2025
Q4 Earnings Season Off to a Great Start
Q4 earnings reporting is officially underway, and it is off to a great start. The big banks kicked off the..
read more - January 14, 2025
Resilient Economy & Policy Uncertainty Fueling Surge in Yields
As a new year gets underway, the big news so far has been the relentless march higher in bond yields. ..
read more - December 19, 2024
FOMC Not In The Holiday Spirit
The Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds Rate by another quarter point yesterday, and yet markets tanked anyway with stocks..
read more - December 18, 2024
Money Market Funds Still Popular, For Now
Despite the Fed having already cut rates twice since September (and likely cutting them again today), the amount of assets..
read more - December 12, 2024
2025 – An M&A Story?
An insurance deal, an advertising deal, a major private credit purchase by Blackrock, even chocolate is getting in on the..
read more - December 10, 2024
Election Results Excite Small Businesses
Despite the overall economy continually outperforming expectations for the past couple of years, small businesses have mostly been in a..
read more - December 4, 2024
Everything is Awesome
So far, 2024 has been a great year for the stock market. Through the end of November, the S&P 500..
read more - November 19, 2024
Lower Gas Prices Giving Shoppers a Boost
While the generalized rate of inflation has come all the way down from a peak of 9.1% in 2022 to..
read more - November 4, 2024
Amidst Election Uncertainty, Focus On Fundamentals
We’ve entered the homestretch of Election 2024, and the polls in key battleground states continue to appear deadlocked. If things..
read more - October 30, 2024
High Yield Spreads Are Tight
High yield bonds – there are two parts to the story: the spreads are so tight that it makes them..
read more - October 18, 2024
The Case for a Soft Landing #3: The Market
Consumption makes up roughly 68% of the US economy, so any discussion of a soft landing cannot ignore the health..
read more - October 11, 2024
It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Earnings Season
Q3 earnings season is officially underway. As usual, the big banks will kick things off, with JPMorgan Chase and Wells..
read more - October 7, 2024
The Case for a Soft Landing #2: Consumer Strength
Consumption makes up roughly 68% of the US economy, so any discussion of a soft landing cannot ignore the health..
read more - October 2, 2024
The Case for a Soft Landing #1: Manufacturing Rebound
Data released yesterday indicated that US manufacturing activity remained subdued in September. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on..
read more - October 1, 2024
New Territory
No, I’m not referring to the stock market even though the S&P 500 Index rose to another all-time high yesterday,..
read more - September 25, 2024
A Step In The Right Direction For China
For quite some time now, Chinese economic activity has been disappointing, slowing to its worst growth rate in 2 years...
read more - September 19, 2024
Fed Decides to Go Big
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to launch the latest monetary easing cycle by going big with a half point cut..
read more - September 16, 2024
Are Fed Rate Cuts Bullish for Bonds?
Conventional wisdom would suggest that Fed easing cycles should be bullish for bonds, given the basic relationship according to which..
read more - September 13, 2024
Small Uptick In Inflation Won’t Stop the Fed
Over the past two days, we got the latest read on inflation with the release of the August Consumer Price..
read more - September 9, 2024
Job Data Keeps The Fed At A Coin Flip
The August payroll release this morning showed a gain of 142k jobs for the month while the unemployment rate moved..
read more - August 22, 2024
Is Sahmthing Brewing in the Labor Market?
The so-called Sahm rule, created by economist Claudia Sahm, is a recession indicator based on the unemployment rate. The indicator..
read more - August 19, 2024
Economic Bull Environment?
As we wait, and the anticipation builds, for the Fed to lay the groundwork for a new easing cycle the..
read more - August 16, 2024
A Normal Market Correction
A sense of calm has continued to settle over markets after the eruption of volatility a couple of weeks ago. ..
read more - August 14, 2024
Inflation No Longer In Focus
The latest inflation data came out yesterday and today. Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand moved lower to 2.2%..
read more - August 9, 2024
Back to Where We Started
As a highly volatile week draws to a close, the price action so far today reflects a relative sense of..
read more - August 5, 2024
VIX Index Hits Peak Fear
The VIX Index, often referred to as “fear gauge”, is a market-based measure of expected volatility for the S&P 500..
read more - August 2, 2024
Bad News Is Suddenly Bad News Again
In the strange world of navigating financial markets, sometimes good news can be bad, and bad news can be good. ..
read more - August 1, 2024
See You In September
So, the Federal Reserve decided to not cut interest rates at the meeting yesterday. We think they could have, but..
read more - July 31, 2024
More Evidence of Labor Market Softening
Data released this morning provided fresh evidence that the labor market is softening. First, the ADP national employment report estimated..
read more - July 17, 2024
It’s Fire Season for Small Caps
As of yesterday’s market close, the Russell 2000 Index, a broad and widely followed gauge of small capitalization stocks, has..
read more - July 12, 2024
Stage Being Set for a September Cut
Yesterday brought the latest read on inflation with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the news was very encouraging across..
read more - July 10, 2024
Strength Leads To More Strength
Second half returns tend to be stronger when the first half of the year is strong. Maybe not the most..
read more - July 2, 2024
Is the economy’s immunity to an inverted yield curve beginning to wane?
We have written at length in the past about the yield curve’s historically reliable track record of predicting recessions. Yield..
read more - June 24, 2024
31 & Counting
As we approach the mid-way point of the year, we should take a moment to look back and appreciate how..
read more - June 20, 2024
Is NVDA the GOAT?
The launch of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022 was a momentous occasion – it brought some of the possibilities that..
read more - June 13, 2024
Cooler Inflation Doesn’t Sway the Fed
It doesn’t happen often. The last time that both the monthly CPI inflation report and an FOMC policy decision fell..
read more - June 11, 2024
Breadth Slightly Weakening
The S&P 500 hit another new all-time high yesterday; something it has accomplished once a week on average this year...
read more - June 5, 2024
Labor market softening resumes
Following a brief acceleration in the first quarter of the year, the labor market appears to have resumed its softening..
read more - May 31, 2024
PCE Friday
Consumption data was released this morning. In April, real consumer spending declined 0.1%, which a slightly weak start to Q2...
read more - May 30, 2024
A Low VIX is a Good VIX
Before popping back up this week, the VIX Index briefly fell below 12 last week, reaching the lowest level since..
read more - May 24, 2024
Corporate Animal Spirits Percolating Again
After spending the better part of the past couple of years bracing for a recession that never materialized, corporate CEOs..
read more - May 16, 2024
Inflation Takes a Step in the Right Direction
The streak of hotter than expected inflation data that we have witnessed so far this year finally shows signs of..
read more - May 14, 2024
Inflation Week Starts Off on the Warm Side
It’s another big week for the economy and markets with the latest reads on inflation for both consumers and businesses. ..
read more - May 9, 2024
Q1 Earnings Smiling at Investors
As of today, roughly 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index have reported earnings for Q1. As we wrote..
read more - May 7, 2024
Food for Emerging Thought
You have to love the market. As soon as an investment is utterly hated, it springs to life with incredible..
read more - May 3, 2024
A Goldilocks Jobs Report
Not too hot, not too cold, but just right – that sums up today’s employment report nicely. Capping off a..
read more - May 2, 2024
High (but not higher) for longer
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week for the third time this year. As widely expected, the FOMC..
read more - February 27, 2024
Looking under the hood at credit trends
As we have said many times prior, it is credit – not love – that makes the world go ‘round. ..
read more - February 22, 2024
Inflation Data Supports Margin Expansion
The latest round of inflation data has come in hotter than expected: On February 13th, we found out that CPI..
read more - February 20, 2024
EDSP = Earnings Drive Stock Prices
With 82% of the companies in the SP500 now having reported their 4Q23 results, the theme of “earnings growth” is..
read more - February 13, 2024
Fed cuts just got pushed to May
The US equity market is up nearly +20% since early November 2023 so a pullback after three very strong months..
read more - February 9, 2024
Too Late To Get In?
The market has been on fire since October 2023 with the S&P 500 moving 22% higher. And it hasn’t been..
read more - February 5, 2024
Lots of market cap created very, very quickly
We don’t spend a lot of time focused on individual stocks. Our attention is focused on market cycles, finding new..
read more - January 26, 2024
Show me the money
In the investment business, it is sometimes easy to get caught up in daily deal headlines, economic announcements, or on..
read more - January 25, 2024
Triple Threat #3: corporate earnings growth
Let’s review our Triple Threat themes for 2024: Commencement of Fed cutting cycle Room for broad P/E multiple expansion And..
read more - January 18, 2024
The Triple Threat: Part 2
Let’s review our thoughts on the “Triple Threat for 2024”: Markets LOVE when the Fed goes from hiking rates to pausing to..
read more - January 16, 2024
The Triple Threat: Part 1
In basketball, the “triple threat” position is a stance where the player can either pass, shoot, or dribble. It’s a..
read more - December 20, 2023
The Santa Pause Rally
The Santa Claus rally is a well-documented seasonal anomaly that sees the stock market produce abnormally high returns around the..
read more - December 15, 2023
2024 Earnings Outlook
As we approach the turn of the calendar, we take a look back at how S&P 500 earnings fared this..
read more - December 14, 2023
VIX Confirming The Bull Market
Investment professionals usually talk about the VIX index as a ‘fear gauge’. That is due to the fact that volatility..
read more - December 7, 2023
CWM Investment Themes for 2024 and beyond: “It’s about 2s and SPOOS”
Not a newsflash, but November 2023 was a monster month in terms of returns for most major asset classes. SP500..
read more - November 28, 2023
CWM Investment Themes for 2024 and beyond: “More companies private for longer”
Over the next couple of weeks, our Investment Team will be rolling out and sharing our thoughts on more longer-term..
read more - November 20, 2023
L-E-I says we’re in R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N
Our internal recession model has been flashing red for a while, and although lots of progress has been made vs...
read more - November 15, 2023
The Non-Magnificent 493
A lot of ink is being spilled writing about the Magnificent 7, the seven largest stocks by market capitalization in..
read more - November 14, 2023
Markets Like Lower Inflation
The latest CPI inflation report was just released this morning, and so far it’s put markets in a very good..
read more - November 10, 2023
Key Takeaways from Q3 Earnings Season
With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, the numbers for Q3 earnings season..
read more - November 9, 2023
The Market Is Getting Thrusty
It has been a great two weeks for the S&P 500. The market closed higher in each of the last..
read more - November 7, 2023
SLOOS singing the blues as recession looms
Our internal recession model has been flashing red for a while, and although lots of progress has been made vs...
read more - November 2, 2023
Q3 Earnings Update: Results Beat, but Guidance Weak
We are entering the final stretch of Q3 earnings reporting season. As of yesterday, 310 companies representing roughly 66% of..
read more - October 31, 2023
Even the market now thinks the Fed is done hiking
We here at CWM practice and preach “cycle investing” – a time honored tradition that reflects our belief that markets..
read more - October 25, 2023
These charts don’t look like inflation to me
Composite PMI readings come out each month and represent a monthly snapshot on the health of the manufacturing and service..
read more - October 20, 2023
Supply Overwhelming Demand In Treasury Market
The Federal Reserve controls the front end of the US Treasury (UST) yield curve. The market controls the long end,..
read more - October 19, 2023
3Q2023 earnings update…so far so good
We are one week into the 3Q23 the earnings reporting season. 64 companies have reported so far, 13% of the..
read more - October 18, 2023
Is the Fed done hiking rates? Odds say more and more likely YES
If the Fed doesn’t hike again, we likely have a mild recession (“soft landing”). If they do hike again, the..
read more - October 11, 2023
Q3 Earnings Poised to Resume Growth
Q3 earnings season is about to rev up with the big US banks reporting on Friday and major Tech companies..
read more - October 10, 2023
All tides do eventually go out…even those tides created by global central bankers
In the past three months, the yield on long-dated UST has increased by about +100bps. The front end of the..
read more - October 5, 2023
Recession Model Update
As we enter Q4, the economy continues to have significant momentum behind it. A consensus of economist estimates the economy..
read more - October 3, 2023
Three observations as the 10y UST yields races to its highest level since 2007
Impossible to ignore the material move higher in 10y UST yields. 4.73% on the 10y UST is its highest level..
read more - September 13, 2023
Does this look like runaway, uncontrolled inflation to you?
Lots of attention this morning to CPI inflation headlines. Energy running hot on low inventory levels, used cars continue to..
read more - September 12, 2023
Back to school, back to basics – “it’s earnings that drive stock prices”
It’s this week’s inflation data that is probably the headline to focus on, if one is into focusing on headlines. ..
read more - September 7, 2023
Three chart Thursday is here!!!
Back-to-school day in Boston, opening night for the NFL, and three charts for your Thursday morning!!! LET’S GO!!! Chart#1 –..
read more - August 29, 2023
Jackson Hole recap – It gets very tricky from here
Fed chair Powell performed roughly “as expected” at Jackson Hole on Friday. Lots of progress to date against inflation. Inflation..
read more - August 24, 2023
Powell’s last stand: a Jackson Hole preview
Fed chair Powell speaks Friday at 10am from Jackson Hole. It’s an important speech with very important implications for markets. ..
read more - August 23, 2023
Sentiment No Longer a Tailwind
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 index is in the midst of a nearly 5% pullback from its..
read more - August 18, 2023
On This Correction In Equities
As Rich wrote on Wednesday, this is historically a weak period for equity markets through the end of October, and..
read more - August 16, 2023
The Dog Days of Summer
One question I am getting a lot now goes like this: “With the market having had such a strong YTD..
read more - August 14, 2023
“The Big Short” of the summer of 2023
The US economy continues to hang in there just fine but inflationary data on many fronts continues to fall and..
read more - August 10, 2023
Inflation Keeps Moderating
Fresh data released this morning points to continued progress on the inflation front. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics..
read more - August 4, 2023
Summer Payrolls Snoozefest
As if on cue to allow everyone to enjoy the last few weeks of summer, today’s labor report was mostly..
read more - August 2, 2023
How to slow inflation in two not-so-easy steps
One of the Fed’s two jobs is to manage inflation around a long-term target (roughly 2.5%). They try to impose..
read more - July 31, 2023
Loan growth blues as recession looms
We talk about “cycle investing” all the time – that’s the time-tested belief that over time markets are driven by..
read more - July 27, 2023
An Inflection Point for Earnings?
Second quarter earnings season is in full swing, with this being the busiest week that has the largest number of..
read more - July 19, 2023
The US Dollar And Future Earnings Growth
The U.S. Dollar has fallen sharply since the CPI report continuing a downtrend that started at the end of last..
read more - July 18, 2023
The Fed’s job is nearly done
Last week brought us fresh evidence that inflation continues to cool rapidly. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported..
read more - July 14, 2023
Me thinks “one and done” with regards to rate hikes
It’s my belief the Fed will hike one final time at their late July meeting and then go on an..
read more - July 12, 2023
This chart does not look like rampant, unchecked inflation to me
We have been saying it for a while: inflation is falling and falling quickly. 2020 was about COVID and goods..
read more - July 5, 2023
High VIX = Good… Low VIX = Bad?
The VIX index, frequently referred to as “the Fear index”, is a widely followed measure of market volatility. It is..
read more - June 30, 2023
A look at where we have been
Eighteen months ago, the financial markets began their transition from a zero-interest world to a world of higher nominal and..
read more - June 27, 2023
Got inflation?
“Goods inflation” was the big story of 2020. The pandemic happened, we tried to reopen the economy but factories weren’t..
read more - June 21, 2023
Does Fed chair Powell know that as apartments grow, rents will slow?
About 40% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is comprised of shelter costs. Shelter comes in various forms but apartment..
read more - June 13, 2023
Another way of trying to interpret this morning’s inflation data
All-important CPI inflation data out this morning, and while the market’s reaction has been favorable since 8:30am EST there’s lots..
read more - June 12, 2023
From Extreme Moves Come Extreme Opportunities
Much has been written over the last few months about the narrowness of the market (poor breadth). The S&P 500..
read more - June 8, 2023
Price Leading Sentiment Again
The S&P 500 is up 20% from the October lows and predictably more and more investors are bullish on continued..
read more - June 7, 2023
Now that we’ve cleared SP500 4200, what’s next is “breadth”
With the market now having cleared the all-important 4200 on SP500, the question now becomes “what’s next?”. The answer is..
read more - June 5, 2023
Rents go lower as inflation goes slower
The CPI Index captures trends in consumer prices, the stuff that you and I all consume each day in various..
read more - June 2, 2023
Crisis averted…we’re onto our next crisis
As expected, our beloved elected officials waited until the very last moment and then cut a deal that does little..
read more - June 2, 2023
Recession Still Lies Ahead
It seems like forever since we started talking about recession. The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries (a.k.a. the..
read more - June 1, 2023
New S&P 500 Monthly Candle
This note is going to go into some of the more granular, monthly technical work that we do, but with..
read more - May 31, 2023
When sentiment is dire, the market generally goes higher
The Conference Board’s Survey of Consumer Confidence showed that consumers have grown even more pessimistic towards the stock market as..
read more - May 26, 2023
What does a “narrow rally” look like?
At two meetings I was in yesterday the topic of the current “narrow rally” was brought up. “Narrow rally” means..
read more - May 25, 2023
Plain and simple: inflation is driven by too much money sloshing around
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”– Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman in speech given in India in 1963 We..
read more - May 23, 2023
Some market technicals for your Tuesday
There are three consensus views I see right now in the market: US recession sometime 2H23 US office real estate..
read more - May 18, 2023
Q1 Earnings Update
With over 90% of companies in the S&P 500 index having already reported results, Q1 2023 earnings season is drawing..
read more - May 9, 2023
It’s lonely at the top, especially for the Fed chair
Everything is politics, including politics itself, investing, and the role of the Fed and its chair. Not really a surprise..
read more - May 4, 2023
“Pause and Effect”
As expected, the Fed hiked +25bps yesterday and the post-hike Powell press conference was the usual bad TV it always..
read more - May 2, 2023
Fed Nearly Finished With Rate Hikes
Tomorrow brings the latest Federal Reserve decision, with another quarter-point hike viewed as a slam dunk – current market pricing..
read more - April 28, 2023
So what happens when we get this well telegraphed recession?
The Fed has been aggressively hiking rates since March 2022, the yield curve has been inverted since last fall, and..
read more - April 26, 2023
We’re going to have a recession #58: money supply growth stalls
“Money makes the world go ‘round – Still don’t nothing move but the money” – Cabaret the Musical (1990s revival)..
read more - April 25, 2023
Recessionary Evidence Keeps Building
More and more evidence is now pointing to the much-anticipated recession beginning to materialize over the next few months. Last..
read more - April 19, 2023
Will We Revisit The Stock Market Lows?
We hear this question a lot; and most of the time it is a foregone conclusion that we will revisit..
read more - April 13, 2023
You can’t have an economic boom with lending gloom
The combination of tighter financial conditions, higher interest rates, a slowing economy AND shrinking deposits due to a banking crisis..
read more - April 12, 2023
Shelter Inflation Starting to Crack
This morning brought the latest read on inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Overall,..
read more - April 11, 2023
Good news: “The Wall of Worry” has officially been constructed
Markets have shown to advance and move forward in the face of a “wall of worry”. Walls of Worry come..
read more - April 5, 2023
Q1 Earnings Season is Upon Us
Q1 2023 earnings reporting season is officially starting next week. As usual, financials will be the first to take center..
read more - April 4, 2023
What does the quickest, fastest, most aggressive rate hiking cycle in our time look like?
2020 was about COVID and the scientific search for a vaccine. 2021 was about quasi-reopening of the global economy and..
read more - March 23, 2023
I never forget an anniversary
Today marks the 3-year anniversary of the COVID market low: March 23, 2020. Three years ago today, mankind, civilization and..
read more - March 22, 2023
Yields spike so the Fed will hike…and Fed chair Powell better throw a strike
Over the course of the past 24hrs, odds have dramatically increased that the Fed will hike by +25bps at 2pm..
read more - March 21, 2023
“March Madness”
The events of the past 10 days – including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the extraordinary measures enacted..
read more - March 15, 2023
What Is Clear Is The Message From The Bond Market
There is certainly a lot happening in the financial markets right now. It is more important than ever during times..
read more - March 13, 2023
The demise of SVB and thoughts on where we go from here
The death of the nation’s 16th largest bank was both swift and shocking and the events of the past few..
read more - March 9, 2023
Renewed Fed Hawkishness Raises Recession Risk
As much as Fed Chair Jerome Powell may claim that the Fed is not trying to push the economy into..
read more - March 2, 2023
Cracks are emerging in low-quality consumer credit
Retail sales remain strong, unemployment claims remain low, and broadly speaking economic growth as measured by consumption and GDP is..
read more - March 1, 2023
Final Observations from 4Q Earnings Season
With 475 companies (96% of market capitalization) of the S&P 500 index having reported 4Q 2022 results, the earnings season..
read more - February 24, 2023
It’s been a long three years…
Three years ago, this week, the world was hit by the onset of the COVID pandemic. Levels of serious illness..
read more - February 22, 2023
Inflation remains a monetary phenomenon
Supply and demand drives inflation, including the supply and demand of money itself. Why did inflation spike in early 2022? ..
read more - February 16, 2023
Still no stress in corporate bonds
With fears of oncoming recession still swirling, the corporate bond market continues to mostly mimic a big shoulder-shrug about that..
read more - February 15, 2023
Inflation: Cooling quickly but still elevated
Yesterday’s CPI inflation data notes an economy that still has elevated inflation, but the trajectory of inflation is cooling and..
read more - February 7, 2023
Everything has a season…including the credit markets
We talk often/always/incessantly about “cycles”. Market cycles are driven by the broad availability and cost of money. Market cycles are..
read more - February 3, 2023
2023: Technicals over narrative
Recession, earnings, the Fed, ongoing war, housing concerns, debt ceiling, over-valuation…. The gloom can crush you. Don’t listen to it...
read more - February 2, 2023
The Recession of 2023
We continue to believe that the likelihood of a recession in 2023 is someplace between absolutely certain and virtually guaranteed...
read more - February 1, 2023
We’re onto February
Financial assets performance Jan 2023 v Jan 2022 – what a difference a year makes, especially after the fastest rate..
read more - January 31, 2023
“Inflation is a monetary phenomenon” – Milton Friedman
The long-term growth in money supply (M2) and the long-term level of inflation (CPI) do track together. Money supply over..
read more - January 26, 2023
Earnings Update: Is bad news bad news again?
In 2022, investors were hyper focused on inflation and the Fed, so much so that bad news (on the economy)..
read more - January 24, 2023
Sentiment & Positioning: both offsides, repeat first down
We’ve been talking about weak investor sentiment now dating back to last spring AFTER inflation started rippin’, AFTER the Fed..
read more - January 19, 2023
Theme #6: Improving market technicals
As our Sean Dillon has been saying for a while now, underlying market technicals have dramatically improved since late last..
read more - January 12, 2023
Theme #5: Value over growth
Another theme we expect to play out in 2023, and possibly beyond, is the outperformance of value stocks over growth..
read more - January 11, 2023
Theme #4: Non USA stocks starting to run
Three things to note on non-USA stocks: We continue to believe that what will work coming out of this extended..
read more - January 10, 2023
Eventually when you jam on the brakes, the car does stop
One of the major stories – if not THE major story – for the capital markets during 2022 was the..
read more - January 6, 2023
Jobs data – don’t focus on jobs added, focus on wage growth trend…slower-er
The headline jobs number this morning was +223K which was roughly in line with the +200K estimate. Revisions to prior..
read more - January 5, 2023
Theme #2: Stars aligning for small caps
One of the silver linings of the type of volatility that’s occurred over the past year is that it also..
read more - January 4, 2023
2023 Theme #1: Abnormal, very weak investor sentiment to start the year
We’ll be putting out a list this week of our major investment themes for 2023 and beyond. Theme #1 is..
read more - January 3, 2023
2022: A year like none other
Here’s the report card on capital market asset classes for 2022: What worked: very, very little. Oil (either flavor, brent..
read more - December 15, 2022
Powell pledges to fight inflation to the death, even though it’s already dying
Whenever Fed chair Powell goes in front of a microphone or a podium, I get slightly nauseous. Powell never misses..
read more - December 13, 2022
“Bad means good” #43: Record downgrades accompany market bottoms
The broad market backdrop continues to play out as we await the Fed’s 50bps rate hike on Wednesday. Inflation is..
read more - December 8, 2022
The real yield curve inversion
Market convention is to quote the shape of the UST yield curve by looking at 10Y UST v 2Y UST...
read more - December 7, 2022
The Great Valuation Reset (GVR)
The S&P 500 is currently down roughly 16% so far this year, which would make 2022 its worst calendar year..
read more - December 2, 2022
Labor report – “good means bad”
A better-than-expected jobs report this morning is sadly not what the market was/is looking for. Tough to describe this labor..
read more - December 1, 2022
Chicago PMI data says recession imminent
Yesterday’s reaction to dovish comments from Fed chair Powell was most certainly welcomed by the markets. Big positive moves in..
read more - December 1, 2022
Let’s talk 200 day MA
The 200-day moving average (ma) is no silver bullet; but as we reflect on price movement over the last few..
read more - November 28, 2022
Another way to think about the current state of investor sentiment
Huge week for economic data – with all eyes pointing towards Friday’s labor report. Consensus estimates are calling for +200,000..
read more - November 16, 2022
UST 10Y doesn’t lie–slower economic growth
Over the past month or so, we’ve survived 3Q22 earnings season and a fairly major Fed announcement. Not small things..
read more - November 15, 2022
Markets move based on the rate of change
Similar to last week’s CPI inflation data, this morning’s PPI inflation (producer price index) data noted similar softness. Markets like..
read more - November 11, 2022
What a day for equities
How historic was the move in equities yesterday? The chart below shows the distribution of returns for the S&P 500..
read more - November 10, 2022
Flash note: CPI slipping, market goes ripping
This morning’s long-awaited CPI inflation data came in softer than expected and the market loves it. SP500 futures were positive..
read more - November 9, 2022
Evaluating this market cycle and why it’s different than everything else we’ve ever seen
I want to talk about market cycles and just how different and unusual the current one is. My apologies for..
read more - November 8, 2022
Election day special: A total lunar eclipse & Mid term market cycle talk
The rarest thing of all: today we had both a total lunar eclipse (technically it was a “blood moon”) and..
read more - November 8, 2022
Q3 Earnings results coming to a close
As of Friday, November 4th 83.5% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 earnings. How did the quarter go, and..
read more - November 4, 2022
Not enough labor demand destroyed yet, but it’s coming and coming fast
Tough to say anything other than this morning’s labor report is indicative of a continued strong labor market and a..
read more - November 3, 2022
Harry Truman said it best
Perhaps one way to try and digest yesterday’s Fed announcement and the subsequent Powell press conference is to quote President..
read more - November 1, 2022
The Story of 2022: Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide
The good news is that October 2022 just registered the best monthly returns for the DJIA since 1976. The DJIA..
read more - October 31, 2022
Seasonal “treat” ahead?
Today is Halloween, and so far it’s been a very spooky year for investors. Inflation, rate hikes, geopolitical conflict and..
read more - October 27, 2022
Three chart Thursday
The market has done a reasonably good job this week shaking off some big, large cap tech earnings misses. Weak..
read more - October 26, 2022
Other markets and the S&P
Inter-market relationships have been much more important for stocks than in past years. I have been highlighting in meetings, and..
read more - October 26, 2022
Volatility goes two ways
Despite overwhelmingly bearish investor sentiment (or perhaps because of it), the S&P 500 index managed to rally 4.75% last week..
read more - October 21, 2022
Interim Q3 earnings update
Roughly 20% of companies in the S&P 500 index have reported Q3 results as of this morning. So far, the..
read more - October 20, 2022
More demand destruction in housing
While the Fed continues to maintain its focus squarely on slowing inflation and employment, in the meantime it’s the housing..
read more - October 17, 2022
Let earnings season begin
Lots of bank earnings the past few days. I don’t see many surprises so far in what has been released: M&A..
read more - October 14, 2022
Yesterday was a fun day
When positioning is historically bearish you get reversal days like we saw yesterday. Intraday, the S&P 500 moved from a..
read more - October 13, 2022
Three chart Thursday
Last Friday’s strong payroll report noted a robust and healthy labor market – which is the last thing the market..
read more - October 7, 2022
Decent labor report = “bad news”
This morning’s non-farm payroll report might have noted the weakest gain since April 2021 but there’s not enough damage in..
read more - October 6, 2022
A great start; need more
We talk a lot about breadth because ‘participation’ to the upside is vital for a sustained move higher. We want..
read more - October 5, 2022
Labor market weakening up…right on cue
Yesterday’s job openings (JOLTs) data notes a weakening in the labor market. Tighter financial conditions clearly starting to impact labor demand. Job..
read more - October 4, 2022
Trending towards recession, labor keeps weakening
One of the commonly quoted measures of a recession is the ISM Manufacturing data going below a reading of 50. >50..
read more - September 30, 2022
Not all recessions are created equal
As we have discussed in prior communications, the Fed has been aggressively hiking interest rates in order to slow down..
read more - September 29, 2022
Q3 Earnings fast approaching
Another quarter is soon drawing to a close and investors will once again turn their focus to the latest corporate..
read more - September 26, 2022
Labor weakness is next
Fed chair Powell’s folly continues. It’s quite the body of work. First problem was doing nothing in 1Q22 as inflation was..
read more - September 22, 2022
Do you remember the 21st night of September?
Pardon the reference to the great Earth, Wind and Fire lyrics but yesterday’s performance by Fed chair Powell was uber..
read more - September 20, 2022
Quantitative tightening on all fronts
As markets brace for the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow 2pm EST (+75bps overwhelming consensus…it’s already priced in and known), economic..
read more - September 16, 2022
Recession odds keep rising
The economic data released over the last couple of months has painted a picture of an economy that is holding..
read more - September 15, 2022
Trying to put Wednesday’s market meltdown into context
Tuesday’s market meltdown of -4% off a bad CPI print warrants both comment and context. Here goes. Since 1950, the market..
read more - September 8, 2022
Economic slowdown at every turn
Economic demand destruction well underway The excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus of 2021 led to a demand spike that resulted..
read more - September 2, 2022
Payroll report
A few quick takeaways from this morning’s payroll report: Non-farm payroll for August 2022 grew by +315,000, right in line..
read more - August 30, 2022
From goods to services
It’s a fabulous Tuesday morning. Schools in Maryland have opened, and the weather is starting to moderate. Now, we need..
read more - August 25, 2022
“Operation Demand Destruction” to hit US housing market
Over the past 8 months, financial conditions have tightened a lot. Interest rates higher, mortgage rates higher, and a stronger..
read more - August 23, 2022
Thoughts as Fed officials gather
The Fed convenes later this week at Jackson Hole for their annual meeting/retreat/gathering/etc. Agenda looks like Wednesday night dinner, Thursday..
read more - August 19, 2022
Lower demand and lower inflation
Higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions are clearly now impacting demand. It took 3-4 months to take effect, but..
read more - August 18, 2022
The Fed and rate policy: what “catching up” looks like
While the excessive money printing and fiscal stimulus of 2021 is the primary cause of above trend/pronounced inflation, it’s the..
read more - August 16, 2022
Designing your succession plan: You are in control
Succession planning is an important piece of practice management for independent advisors, and it is an issue many advisors are..
read more - August 16, 2022
Fund managers running a lot of cash – and that’s bullish
When we quote investor “sentiment”, there’s three big data points we look at: the put/call ratio, the bull/bear ratio, and..
read more - August 9, 2022
Bond market sending conflicting signals
The normally reliable US bond market is sending conflicting signals at the moment, adding to the confusion about whether the..
read more - August 4, 2022
Why should I invest now?
Number #1 question being asked now sounds like this: “Why should I invest now?” The Fed is raising rates, recession..
read more - August 4, 2022
Energy companies thriving
Energy outperformance has cooled recently, which was to be expected after an historic run of outperformance from January to June...
read more - August 3, 2022
Demand destruction #38: Softening labor market
Tougher/tighter financial conditions and an aggressive Fed still playing from behind with regards to rates and inflation are purposefully destroying..
read more - August 2, 2022
2Q Earnings Update
The S&P 500 index is roughly halfway through reporting season for 2Q results, with 282 companies out of 500 having..
read more - July 29, 2022
Tighter financial conditions finally hit housing: all part of well telegraphed “demand destruction”
We have been talking about tighter financials conditions (higher rates, higher yields, tougher lending, etc.) and the theme of demand..
read more - July 28, 2022
A recession like none other
This morning’s GDP report noted contraction for the second quarter in a row. We can debate inventory builds and trade..
read more - July 26, 2022
Demand destruction #6: US services prices lower-er
The bond market already has hiked rates to 3%. The Fed is playing catch up but will get there in..
read more - July 19, 2022
What’s new at Congress Wealth Advisor Solutions
It is hard to believe it has already been more than a year since Congress Wealth Management (“Congress”) acquired Pinnacle..
read more - July 19, 2022
Rising cash levels indicative of already very, very weak sentiment
Volatility fatigue led to extreme weak investor sentiment which has now finally translated in defensive portfolio positioning. Actions speak louder..
read more - July 15, 2022
A rough week for peak inflation
There’s no sugarcoating it – it’s been a very rough week for all of the peak inflationists who’ve been arguing..
read more - July 14, 2022
The End of Speculation #2:
The demise of meme stocks, day trading, and Robinhood (HOOD) Excess money supply growth led to excess inflation which led..
read more - July 12, 2022
The End of Speculation #1:
The pain inflicted on high quality, long duration bonds Between March 2020 and December 2021, the US produced about $8..
read more - June 30, 2022
The Fed and spreads
New WebsiteWhat does behind the curve look like? The Federal Reserve is about to tighten monetary policy, i.e., raise rates,..
read more - June 23, 2022
Don’t look now but inflation is peaking
Higher prices have led to tighter financial conditions. Mortgage rates up a lot, gasoline prices up a lot, UST yields higher,..
read more - June 21, 2022
Demand destruction underway
As the latest sign that the economy is slowing down, the once red-hot housing market is starting to sputter. Based..
read more - June 15, 2022
What does “demand destruction” look like? Softer retail sales data
The Fed can’t do anything about the supply of goods and services but does control the creation and destruction of..
read more - June 14, 2022
It’s the end of speculation as we know it
Elevated inflation and a Fed that is way too far behind the curve is where we find ourselves today. The Fed..
read more - June 14, 2022
Why outsource?
There are a wide range of investment outsourcing options available to advisors these days. Undoubtedly, the right one is out..
read more - June 9, 2022
What about the yield curve?
It seems like no one is talking about the yield curve any more. During the last week of March, when..
read more - June 7, 2022
Inflation everywhere you look
Economist Milton Friedman and I have many things in common,. We both believe that inflation is driven by the excess..
read more - June 3, 2022
Wage pressures easing at the margin
A few takeaways from this morning’s payroll report: Payroll employment with revisions increased +368k……still hot Household employment increased +320k……still hot..
read more - June 1, 2022
A look at what corporate insiders are doing
Corporates insiders have an unusually good track record of timing their personal buys/sells. There’s a process around their trades and..
read more - May 25, 2022
Has wage growth peaked?
Over the past several months we have talked often about the root cause of the current inflationary environment. We can argue..
read more - May 23, 2022
The great valuation re-set
Stocks may not be cheap but they are definitely not expensive anymore. Great companies are still growing earnings; in fact,..
read more - May 19, 2022
Extreme bearishness precedes extreme gains
Over the last few turbulent months, we have highlighted a few individual sentiment indicators as they reached extreme bearish levels..
read more - May 17, 2022
Elevated but likely peaking
Last week’s Consumer Price Index inflation data noted elevated levels of inflation but also some signs that inflation may be..
read more - May 10, 2022
Extreme “breadth” or just “out of breath”?
There have only been 12x in the past 60 years in which greater than 93% of the trading volume of..
read more - May 5, 2022
Curve steepening is a good thing
Yesterday afternoon big risk rally was a pleasant break. The market came into Powell’s press conference oversold, looking for a reason..
read more - May 4, 2022
Investor sentiment is now officially below levels in March 2009 (the GFC bottom)
In March 2009, US unemployment rate was around 10%, the global credit markets were completely frozen, high yield bond defaults..
read more - May 4, 2022
1Q earnings update
We are entering the busiest days of 1Q reporting season for companies in the S&P 500 index. While only 212..
read more - May 3, 2022
#49: Heather Rhoades | Estate Planning
Heather Rhoades is Chairman of Cummings & Lockwood’s Private Clients Group and is Partner in Charge of the West Hartford..
read more - April 26, 2022
The bulk of the yield curve is not inverted
At the beginning of April, the 10-2 year yield curve briefly inverted, creating widespread hysteria in the financial media. However,..
read more - April 20, 2022
Lowest AAII Bull/Bear readings in 30 years…and why that is a good thing
Market Last week’s AAII Bull/Bear reading of just 15.8 was the LOWEST reading since 1992. Bears greatly outnumber Bulls. A lower reading..
read more - April 12, 2022
It’s that time of the quarter again
Earnings reporting season for Q1 2022 is about to kick off. As usual, the first week will be dominated by..
read more - April 7, 2022
Four rate hikes became seven rate hikes became eleven rate hikes…quickly
Markets haven’t experienced higher inflation and higher yields in a really long time, but that’s the world we find ourselves..
read more - April 5, 2022
Pictures worth a thousand words…healing
The NDR Crowd Sentiment poll below measures market based and survey-based sentiment indicators to gauge if investors are optimistic or..
read more - April 5, 2022
#48: Bill Loehning | Lessons Learned From Wirehouses
In this episode we are joined by Bill Loehning of Thornburg Investment Management who shares his experiences working with both..
read more - April 1, 2022
#47: Jeff Levine | CPAs and Financial Planning
For nearly 40 years, Jeff Levine has been more than an accountant to his clients. Jeff and his partner built..
read more - March 31, 2022
The fun doesn’t stop when the yield curve inverts
At about 1:32 PM EST on Tuesday, the widely-followed spread between 10-year and 2-year treasury yields (a.k.a. the yield curve)..
read more - March 29, 2022
Buy backs to the resue
2022 is certainly off to an inauspicious start. Spring hasn’t even fully sprung yet investors’ nerves are already frayed thanks..
read more - March 16, 2022
Are millennials a worthy prospect?
There are many ways to divide different demographics to compare and contrast. One way that has been in vogue in..
read more - March 8, 2022
#46: Chris Winn | The Current Compliance Landscape
Chris Winn is founder of AdvisorAssist and has over 23 years of investment management industry experience with a focus on..
read more - February 25, 2022
Could Russia derail the earnings bull market?
While global financial markets are reeling from the latest geopolitical events in Eastern Europe, earnings season for Q4 2021 is..
read more - February 23, 2022
History says geopolitical events lead to short and shallow selloffs
Here’s a fairly comprehensive list of geopolitical events dating back +80y. Consistent with last week’s TalkingPoints – What do geopolitical..
read more - February 16, 2022
A critical investment portfolio foundation
Sound asset allocation is the critical foundation for every successful investment portfolio. We at CWM have always preached the need to..
read more - February 14, 2022
What do geopolitical events mean for stock returns?
Fears of a major conflict between Russia and Ukraine/NATO intensified over the past week as White House officials urged all..
read more - February 8, 2022
Report from the (earnings) front
With 56% of companies (worth 73% of market capitalization) of the S&P 500 index having reported results for Q4 2021,..
read more - January 27, 2022
What comes after a big year for stocks
The questions I am getting from clients now are focused almost entirely on three specific things: (1) the equity market..
read more - January 27, 2022
What does a bottom look like?
From January 4th, the S&P 500 has fallen close to 10%. A monthly decline of this magnitude has occurred 15..
read more - January 26, 2022
Senior investors at risk
The American population continues to age, and more and more baby boomers are entering their twilight years. Every day, 10,000..
read more - January 19, 2022
A Summary of PTE 2020-02
Our Chief Compliance Officer has put together a summary of the fiduciary advice exemption PTE 2020-02 for our own Wealth..
read more - January 6, 2022
Mid-term election years are “bumpy”
The blue line, green line, purple line, and red line below all say that midterm election years get more and..
read more - January 5, 2022
A few predictions for 2022
I have four predictions for 2022 – here goes: The Fed is going to raise interest rates. Maybe the most meaningless..
read more - December 7, 2021
#45: Carl Noble & Sauro Locatelli | Exposure and Sector Rotation
Carl Noble, Senior Vice President of Investments and Sauro Locatelli, Director of Quantitative Research, of Congress Wealth Management join us..
read more - November 16, 2021
#44: Louis Diamond | Breakaways
Making the decision to breakaway from a wirehouse or larger firm can be a daunting one. There are many things..
read more - November 3, 2021
#43: Scott Dell’Orfano | M&A
Mergers and acquisitions are a hot topic in the trade press these days. What then are the causes and formative..
read more - October 19, 2021
#42: Congress Investment Team | All Time Highs
Despite advisor’s best efforts to the contrary, many amateur investors insist on trying some variation of “timing the market” philosophy..
read more - June 22, 2021
#41: Kate Cote | Helping Military Families
Helping military and federal government families is a special niche, one that requires some specialized knowledge and a level of..
read more - June 1, 2021
#40: Chris Wendt | Digital Marketing
Have referrals started to dry up, is your pipeline of new business getting shorter and shorter, is it taking you..
read more - May 18, 2021
#39 Bernie Kiely | Working With Industry Organizations
Bernie Kiely, highly respected and renowned advisor tells you how it is in the world of advisory practice and how..
read more