Markets were rattled yesterday morning with the news over the weekend that President Trump planned to apply tariffs of 25% on trade with both Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. With both neighboring countries quickly stating that they would respond with retaliatory tariffs of their own, it sparked fears... read more →
Feb
04
Jan
28
With about 20% of companies in the S&P 500 index having reported earnings for Q4 of last year, it is now Big Tech’s turn. Six out of the seven largest companies in the S&P 500 index (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Tesla), making up roughly 26.4% of its market capitalization,... read more →
Jan
23
Government bond total returns have been disappointing over the last 10 years annualizing 1% from 2014 to 2024. Due to the strong relationship between the 10-year yield and forward 10- year returns, shown in the chart below, that isn’t too surprising as yields hovered around 2% from 2012 to 2019,... read more →
Jan
17
Q4 earnings reporting is officially underway, and it is off to a great start. The big banks kicked off the season as usual, and they immediately knocked it out of the park. JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo, as well as investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan... read more →
Jan
14
As a new year gets underway, the big news so far has been the relentless march higher in bond yields. Since the Federal Reserve first cut the overnight Fed Funds Rate by 50bps in September, longer-term bond yields have uncharacteristically risen throughout a Fed easing cycle, with the 10-year Treasury... read more →
Dec
19
The Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds Rate by another quarter point yesterday, and yet markets tanked anyway with stocks suffering their largest “Fed Day” sell-off since March 2020. It turns out that Chair Powell and the rest of his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are in... read more →
Dec
18
Despite the Fed having already cut rates twice since September (and likely cutting them again today), the amount of assets sitting in money market funds keeps piling up. As of last week, money market fund assets amounted to a whopping $6.77 trillion (top panel below). For historical context, this amounts... read more →
Dec
12
An insurance deal, an advertising deal, a major private credit purchase by Blackrock, even chocolate is getting in on the mergers and acquisitions push over the last few weeks. These are big transactions across multiple industries. As we move into 2025, this could be a major theme that helps broaden... read more →
Dec
10
Despite the overall economy continually outperforming expectations for the past couple of years, small businesses have mostly been in a dour mood. Indeed, the monthly Small Business Optimism Index survey from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) wallowed in the low 90s from early 2022 through October of this... read more →
Dec
04
So far, 2024 has been a great year for the stock market. Through the end of November, the S&P 500 Index has gained 28.06%, which is all the more impressive considering it is coming on the back of a 26.26% gain in 2023. To be sure, a lot of good... read more →